This Zionic Leb-krieg
seems to have legs, so I checked in with
the man himself --
the guy Sandy Berger called "that facetious preppie dickhead,"
our one and only
link to the Foreign Service/NSC mindset, the renowned
Mr Y (Of Arabia, in this case). Interview follows.
P: This Lebaon biz has its unfurling complexity, eh?
Y: Well, I suppose it does to the chittering horde of unscarred armchir strategists. [Sighs wearily]
One can always elaborate this stuff,
fabricate, out of whole cloth
conflicting premeditations, and the like. But
I prefer to look at the events themselves,
at least so far as we can view them,
and I see a very simple drama here, really --
one perhaps waiting offstage for a decent moment to spring itself upon
the world, to be sure.
P: And that would be... ?
Y: Why, obviously,
a king-hell IDF rampage.
My guess is, they like the idea
they're up against a real guerrilla force here --
not just young gals in blast belts.
It ought to run for a while,
at least till
Syria is forced to play some cards.
P: Can the outside do anything?
Y: The French and their German consorts
may eventually send in troops. I underline 'eventually.'
Interlarding the rough edge between these two toughs
could be very hazardous at the present time,
so don't count on a civilized intervention
till the Zionian forces have kicked a lot more stuffing out of the Hezzery.
If they can, of course. I doubt the Euros
want a serious piece of any suppression action.
P: Our man Smith seems inclined toward
a US Marine landing scenario.
Y: [snickers] Far be it from me to gainsay Father Smith,
what with his deep ties to the Maronite community
and the Falange --
but I'd place my bets on a pure IDF operation.
Nooo, I expect we won't see fighting jarheads
dancing through the minds of voters come November,
as aesthetically pleasing as that might seem now. I think the Mini-Me's
will play the role
all by themselves --
until, and I should add, if,
both sides eventually
allow in a new middle force like the Franco-German bid.
Needless to say,
uncle will need to endorse whatever deputation goes there from the
enlightened north of the planet --
but US boots on the beach?
I'd say no.
Even if the plan calls for a blitz to Damascus,
this will remain a Light Of The Nations folly throughout.
P: Okay then, give me a time scale here --
from now to status quiet or quit.
Y: Damned if I know.
It's a tiger ride over there right now,
neither side looks even winded to me.
It could be a long waltz.
its hard to tell what inside this feels like to the Israelis.
They have their solid reasons both to overplay Hezzy fortitude,
and underplay their own objectives.
So we'll likely get the usual mishmash of cross-eyed BS in public statements and planted
By the way,
Father Smith's suggestion to parachute Ms. Albright into
the area of conflict
is an ace of a play.
Nazrullah, if you're listening --
if Albright does get substituted for the younger, more agile, entirely irresistible but less wily
don't let that owly old she-witch mug of hers fool you.
Watch your shins.
In the clutches she's a regular Rosa Klebb.
And to be fair,
she was not always old and monstrous.
At Foggy Bottom it was always rumored
that as a youngster, to make her bones,
she whacked the estimable Doctor Che, whilst in a mountaintop love-nest embrace.