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The oracle inhales the vapors...

By Michael J. Smith on Monday July 24, 2006 09:33 PM

When I venture to make a prediction, I'm always wrong -- well, nearly always -- but sometimes a guy just can't resist the urge to make a fool of himself. I've sat down again on my tripod over the navel of the earth, and the gods have vouchsafed me a vision of the October Surprise. The details are hazy, but here are the broad outlines:

Sometime late this summer or early in the fall, the War On Terror opens a new front. Maybe it will be Iran, or Syria, or maybe just US troops back in Lebanon, conducting fraternal Indian wars with the Israelis at our side, Huck and Jim in flak jackets.

Yeah, that's the ticket -- Lebanon. The Israelis will be the new Brits, and Beirut the new Normandy. There'll also be a NATO figleaf -- Tony Blair will send a few yobbos from Manchester, and maybe the Germans will get with the program this time, if Merkel's neck isn't still out of joint.

But the main point of it is that Israeli yobbos and Americn yobbos will be standing shoulder to shoulder, pouring ordnance into Lebanese apartment buildings. From the electoral point of view, that's the beauty of it: the Democrats will have to -- not just shut up, but applaud, and fall into line, and cheer on the Commander-In-Chief, because it'll be a joint Israel-US project, and you can't attack it without attacking Israel.

All Bozo has to do is send the Marines to Lebanon again -- part of a joint expeditionary force with the light-unto-the-nations -- and the Democrats will be hogtied, gagged, and hamstrung.

Maybe Israel will even take a few casualties -- lose a little ground -- contrive, if necessary, a sanguinary rocket attack on Haifa. So Uncle will have to go in and save 'em. Yeah! That's the ticket! Save Israel! That's why the censorship is letting out all this stuff about how Hizbollah is proving tougher than anybody thought.

You heard it here first.

Comments (2)

Jesus Reyes:

Iran has been kicking the USA's ass ever since they stole our oil in '79. Iran just won the Iraq war and Dr. Evil has hit a wall with the sunni insurgency.

I think this leveling of Lebanon by Mini-Me is the NeoCon's Iranian plan B. But like the iraqi insurgency, the hizbollah has 10 years of planning, stockpiling and digging in and the Bekaa Valley to resupply. They say they are dug in like the Viet Cong. We are rushing "bunker busters" over but if that doesnt do the job then I dont know what. We clearly didnt expect this or the bunker busters would have already been there. I'm beginning to think the hezbollah is as formidible as the iraqi insurgency. If that is true then Israel has hit a wall also.

Plan A and B is about taking it directly to Iran with nukes (around October). When you hit a wall you have to "legitimize" your nukes and for the kind of world empire they envision it is going to take a believable nuclear threat.

I think the Hizbollah was supposed to fold which was going to suck Syria and Iran in but that doesnt appear to be happening. I did watch a little bit of little tommy friedman on little timmy russert and apparently Syria is the "game changer" but really the only game changer is the nuclear option and right now it looks like all known plans have failed.


Underestimating insurgencies is an old story -- even General Custer wasn't the first -- and it's quite possible the Light Of The Nations was surprised by how hard Hizbollah bit back. In twenty years we'll know, or fifty at the outside. For you young folks who are still around then.

As regards the nukes -- seems to me nobody really wants to use an atom bomb. That fine old democrat Harry Truman was the first and last. What you want is to have it, as a threat, and to make sure your enemy doesn't have it, to counteract your threat.That's what the hysteria about Iran's conjectural nukes is all about -- Israel would like to keep enjoying its monopoly.

Maybe the Israeli leadership is crazy enough to actually drop the bomb. I yield to none in my respect for Israel's craziness, but they'll have to actually do it before they'll convince me they're that crazy.

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