I recently came across one of Keynes' essays that I had never seen before, "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren". It was heartening to read, given that I share a certain sense of optimism with him -- the sense that we are on the cusp of solving the economic problem, that our chief problem will soon be an excess of otium, and that our current crisis is more likely to give way to an era of progress rather than one of stagnation. These things are as true today as they were when Keynes was writing 80 years ago. He thought that this sort of economic utopia could be achieved by 2030, but I would add another 50 years to that, given the four decade detour that we have been on.
One part that I particularly enjoyed was his speculation regarding the fate that awaits saving, once it is no longer of any use to society. Oh to be rid of these grasping Goriots, these heinous Harpagons! I can hardly wait!
When the accumulation of wealth is no longer of high social importance, there will be great changes in the code of morals. We shall be able to rid ourselves of many of the pseudo-moral principles which have hag-ridden us for two hundred years, by which we have exalted some of the most distasteful of human qualities into the position of the highest virtues. We shall be able to afford to dare to assess the money-motive at its true value. The love of money as a possession -as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life -will be recognized for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease. All kinds of social customs and economic practices, affecting the distribution of wealth and of economic rewards and penalties, which we now maintain at all costs, however distasteful and unjust they may be in themselves, because they are tremendously useful in promoting the accumulation of capital, we shall then be free, at last, to discard.Of course there will still be many people with intense, unsatisfied purposiveness who will blindly pursue wealth-unless they can find some plausible substitute. But the rest of us will no longer be under any obligation to applaud and encourage them. For we shall inquire more curiously than is safe to-day into the true character of this “purposiveness” with which in varying degrees Nature has endowed almost all of us. For purposiveness means that we are more concerned with the remote future results of our actions than with their own quality or their immediate effects on our own environment. The “purposive” man is always trying to secure a spurious and delusive immortality for his acts by pushing his interest in them forward into time. He does not love his cat, but his cat’s kittens; nor, in truth, the kittens, but only the kittens’ kittens, and so on forward forever to the end of cat-dom. For him jam is not jam unless it is a case of jam to-morrow and never jam to-day. Thus by pushing his jam always forward into the future, he strives to secure for his act of boiling it an immortality."
With any luck, our New New Soviet Man will look down on Warren Buffett (a truly demented specimen) with the same mix of pity and revulsion aroused by the sight of a hoarder slowly entombing himself in bric-a-brac.
Comments (24)
Lovely find!
Posted by Michael Dawson | September 14, 2010 1:23 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 13:23
we already didn't need scotsmen in cottages counting their coin in 1830 let alone 1930 or 2030
shame on u fb
what is a credit system
and a means to regulate the price level for
if not to abolish the scrooge reflex ??
savings
personal savings
even institutional savings
are now a mass superstition
not a religion
we live among dark age avatars
gthose who bow before
this celestial calf of secular worship
are as benighted as fred flintstone
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 1:48 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 13:48
the intellectual under pinnings of this sunday supplement piece come from discussions with
frank ramsey
who wrote this lesser known version of the same future world
Ramsey F.P. (1928), "A Mathematical Theory of Saving," Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No 152, pp. 543 559
its quite lovely
in a facetiously "mock hard " benthamite way
slashing at time discounters he uses the
horror assumption of maximal "social savings"
a the welfare of cat n generations rrom now
is precisely equal to the welfare of a cat today
we only have a rate of "interest "
to ration the uses of this maximal
social savings
change the word savings to accumulation
and you have the progenitor
of a vast global ... five year plan
down with 50 million
ranch house 'accumulators"
with their wretched potted plant size portfolios
all power to gosplan II
on to MMSA
the massive maximal social accumulator
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 2:06 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 14:06
haha, i read http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2010/09/poverty-of-imagination-in-age-of.html immediately before
Posted by hapa | September 14, 2010 2:06 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 14:06
".. our current crisis is more likely to give way to an era of progress rather than one of stagnation"
optimism indeed !!
global or local ???
now as in the next ten ....
years
or the next ten decades
give or take a few reaganian eddies
i love a patient feller
t'is true
as much as we seem to ignore it
Clio ain't producing this
10 millenia grand guignol
just for us boomers to cream off
the climax eh ??
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 2:11 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 14:11
hapa
i like you too much to declare war on
natural peaksters
and their relentless cries of
" sorry u face mate in three moves pal
we all do ... "
so long as they refrain from chortling excessively
and never fail to piously
recognize the natural resources
that is both finite and natural
which contemporary capitalism
squanders most wantonly
are
the brief times that become
men's souls
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/business/global/14euro.html?_r=1
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 2:19 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 14:19
"we already didn't need scotsmen in cottages counting their coin in 1830 let alone 1930 or 2030"
You can extend that back to 2000 BC, though. Theoretically you could set up a good social credit/payment system at any time in history, so we've never really needed saving.
"global or local ???
now as in the next ten ....
years
or the next ten decades"
Definitely not the next 10 years. Maybe sometime in the 50 years after that.
Posted by FB | September 14, 2010 3:02 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 15:02
I found a link to that paper:
Ramsey F.P. (1928), "A Mathematical Theory of Saving," Economic Journal
http://folk.uio.no/gasheim/zRam1928.pdf
Posted by FB | September 14, 2010 3:32 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 15:32
the narrative feeds right into the bond set's hands tho. it'd be a just war.
Posted by hapa | September 14, 2010 4:36 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 16:36
fb
"You can extend that back to 2000 BC, though. Theoretically you could set up a good social credit/payment system at any time in history, so we've never really needed saving."
you answer in silly mode
i mean we had the material basis in england
in 1835 okay maybe 1845
railroads and telegraph
okay so 1848
at any rate by the time of the CPM
england had progressed to a system
that could convert to a pure credit driven production system
like the soviets put in place in the 30's of the following century one hindred year later
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 6:21 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 18:21
Why do you think that railroads and the telegraph were necessary?
I was imagining that some form of government, written language and math would be enough.
Posted by FB | September 14, 2010 8:08 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 20:08
I see I have misspelled my handle. Kinda nice though, in an opish way.
Could one of the resident economists do a sermon on thrift, contrasting it with saving, which my mind confuses it with? (Couldn't summon up correct syntax for this question. Sorry.)
Posted by Boibk | September 14, 2010 9:38 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 21:38
government, written language and math
enough for usury
an "ante diluvian form of capital"
like merchants profit
but obviously you're sugggesting something the inca might have devised
credit is a meta system term in that sense
i perhaps needed to suggest i was restricting myself to commodity systems of social production
then again i'm sure you knew that on some level
i picked that bone because many folks
u not included
don't know the marxian thesis
that the bourgeois world historical contributions are over
and have been since mid 19th century
here's keynes implying we have need of these old systems for at least at the time another hundred years
sorry if i was a bit to brusk
it was un intentional...the first time
the second time it was apishness
a vice i indulge like some do
the communion wafer
Posted by op | September 14, 2010 10:02 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 22:02
A little violation of intellectual property here:
The witch that came (the withered hag)
To wash the steps with pail and rag,
Was once the beauty Abishag,
The picture pride of Hollywood.
Too many fall from great and good
For you to doubt the likelihood.
Die early and avoid the fate.
Or if predestined to die late,
Make up your mind to die in state.
Make the whole stock exchange your own!
If need be occupy a throne,
Where nobody can call you crone.
Some have relied on what they knew;
Others on simply being true.
What worked for them might work for you.
No memory of having starred
Atones for later disregard,
Or keeps the end from being hard.
Better to go down dignified
With boughten friendship at your side
Than none at all. Provide, provide!
Posted by MJS | September 14, 2010 11:49 PM
Posted on September 14, 2010 23:49
Boink,
Those two terms are generally used interchangeably, but I think you can draw a distinction, where thrift is maximizing consumption per unit of income, while saving is not using up all of your income.
People might be thrifty in order to save, but can also be thrifty without saving, or save without being thrifty
Thrift: A poor person who needs two t-shirts, but can only afford one, who searches out a 2-for-1 deal in the bargain bin, spending all of their income.
Thrift & Saving: Middle class person who buys 1-ply toilet paper instead of 2-ply, and contributes the money saved to their 401K
Saving: A rich person who wastes money on fancy cars and brioni ties, but only ever spends 60% of their income and saves the rest.
Posted by FB | September 15, 2010 9:24 AM
Posted on September 15, 2010 09:24
"but obviously you're sugggesting something the inca might have devised"
I was thinking of the Chinese, given that they were less gold-obsessed that most other civilizations and actually used some pretty innovative paper money systems.
" the bourgeois world historical contributions are over
and have been since mid 19th century
here's keynes implying we have need of these old systems for at least at the time another hundred years"
The way I see it is that saving and investment is only necessary for lack of an alternative system of accumulation. I don't really buy the idea that bourgeois capitalist accumulation was necessary at any point. It's just one sub-optimal solution to the problem of coordinating activity in such a way that capital and productivity grow and compound steadily.
I think that we are just now getting to the point where we can be pretty sure that we have a workable alternative that will succeed where the USSR and PRC failed.
Posted by FB | September 15, 2010 9:52 AM
Posted on September 15, 2010 09:52
Thrift & Saving: Middle class person who buys 1-ply toilet paper instead of 2-ply, and contributes the money saved to their 401K...
Upon reaching retirement age (80), MCP doinks head and realizes 401K is toilet paper, no-ply.
Posted by Michael Dawson | September 15, 2010 2:15 PM
Posted on September 15, 2010 14:15
"It's just one sub-optimal solution to the problem of coordinating activity in such a way that capital and productivity grow and compound steadily."
and you think that meme stream is itself not a product of human history
or are you saying
that meme does not require
contributions that came only thru
the world historical stages
of the bourgois epoch ???
maybe you're pulling up
the crude and crazy cat improvised on the fly
ladder that got you so high up in the tree
as to see beyond the stand of trees in front of you
Posted by op | September 15, 2010 3:05 PM
Posted on September 15, 2010 15:05
"I think that we are just now getting to the point where we can be pretty sure that we have a workable alternative that will succeed where the USSR and PRC failed"
now your talkin'
i agree completely
notice i said material conditions not the concentrated comprehension of
the possibilities for further action
contained in those material conditions
the 5 year plan was a bold thrust
across the frontier
it implied
"we don't need no stinkin' scrooges ...
"now !!! not in a hundred years ...now !!!"
this to me is the difference between
lenin and martov
you take your choice
the soviet or the weimar republic ??
both ended rather badly
like all of Clio's blue plate specials
in the end time
its always reform or revolution
but of course that's only in..the end time
and yet read the reds of 15-16 did they have any inkling of what was about to happen
of course they got two shocks
the hideous rally round the flag moment of summer fourteen
before thoise moments after
the winter of seventeen when .....it was an end time
a time for a fall of seventeen
Posted by op | September 15, 2010 3:14 PM
Posted on September 15, 2010 15:14
"and you think that meme stream is itself not a product of human history
or are you saying
that meme does not require
contributions that came only thru
the world historical stages
of the bourgois epoch ???"
Well, in general, isn't every idea a product of human history? I tend to view the path of history and emergence of new ideas as a little more arbitrary and a little less logical than the way you seem to view it. In general I find that these world historical dialectics seem a bit like just-so stories.
"i agree completely
notice i said material conditions not the concentrated comprehension of
the possibilities for further action
contained in those material conditions"
That's the bit where I disagree, I think. It doesn't seem to me to be a matter of the material conditions being right. It seems like something that could have been implemented a long time ago as it doesn't really require advanced technology or a lot of fixed capital, etc..
Posted by FB | September 15, 2010 9:06 PM
Posted on September 15, 2010 21:06
"I tend to view the path of history and emergence of new ideas as a little more arbitrary and a little less logical than the way you seem to view it."
for logical substitute some thing like
chained to the necessity
of a sequence of stages
ergotic ???
well the potential
of the human brain and hand might well have taken far longer or maybe somewhat shorter
time to get to the commodity/credit economy
we have three independent experiments
australia and the new world
seems the new world with its more recent separation from the old world
was close on to evolving
full blown state centered society
---if not "there"---
yet seems to have run on a slower clock
and with nicely different florishings
but australia ...yikes !!!!
but no exit ??
i doubt it
imagine the rest of humanity wiped out in say 1750
maybe the time till reconquest of the old world out of australia
might have pushed of the commodity/credit economy for a million years
i have no notion of when the land bridge
would be resurfacing even without anthrogenic warming
it migof 100 million years i dunno
but not never and then the necessary stage would begin the emerge out of each other
"In general I find that these world historical dialectics seem a bit like just-so stories. "
they are but only because we can't
as yet even in stripped down form
model human social evolution
but despite genesis being
6th century bc redaction
of a just so story
it got
the finite history of the universe right
even if in abbreviated form
6 thousand 15 billion... ah what's that
among the zillionns of universes
prolly both scales
are placed by the devil
in the same
total time zip code
Posted by op | September 16, 2010 3:26 PM
Posted on September 16, 2010 15:26
"among the zillionns of universes"
Heavy. Just two 'everythings' defeats my limited understanding.
Posted by Anonymous | September 16, 2010 9:35 PM
Posted on September 16, 2010 21:35
I wonder about these "necessary stages." Am I betraying the Old Man? I hope not, because I venerate him.
Is it disrespectful, though, to say that while he brilliantly opened our eyes to what did actually happen in history, nobody but nobody is in a position to say what might have been? Or might or will be?
Years ago I had a serious beef with the subjunctive mood: The only thing that's possible, I used to grump, is what has in fact happened. (Of course that list will have to be revised tomorrow.) I'm not such a bigot any more, and I subjunctivize recreationally. Still, it's hard to know what basis there might be for deciding that any given event is either inevitable or impossible.
Posted by MJS | September 17, 2010 11:13 PM
Posted on September 17, 2010 23:13
a series of necessary stages
may only be in terms of each other
doesn't preclude other equally valid
sets of necessary stages
much like various proofs
of say the pythagorean theorem
and yet the analytic notion implied by the necessary stage lingo
is clearly off base
one means necessary here in the hegelian sense
"head for the Sabellian hills ..hoss "
Posted by op | September 18, 2010 5:14 PM
Posted on September 18, 2010 17:14